Interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2 is standardly attributed to variability in the carbon sink capacity of the terrestrial biosphere. These results may contribute to the prediction of future trends for global temperature and ENSO. It is shown that the first-difference CO 2 and temperature model shows no trend mismatch in recent years. This paper also shows that both these correlations display Granger causality. Further, a correlation is found for second-difference CO 2 with the Southern Oscillation Index, the atmospheric-pressure component of ENSO. Using time-series analysis in the form of dynamic regression modelling with autocorrelation correction, it is shown that first-difference CO 2 leads temperature and that there is a highly statistically significant correlation between first-difference CO 2 and temperature. With this background, this paper reinvestigates the relationship between change in the level of CO 2 and two of the major climate variables, atmospheric temperature and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While an increasing number of possible causes have been proposed, the candidate causes have not yet converged. For its own sake, and to enable better climate prediction for policy use, the reasons behind this mismatch need to be better understood. A significant difference, now of some 16 years' duration, has been shown to exist between the observed global surface temperature trend and that expected from the majority of climate simulations.
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